Where Are We Now?
Charting Andy Farrell's Ireland just three windows out from the RWC
2024-2026: Raging against the dying of the light?
There is one clear non-negotiable in professional sports. Synomyms of the one idea; as we all look for the same thing. Heart, fight, character. Call it what you want, it is a necessity.
Rugby, if anything, demands it more than other sports given it’s physical and confrontational natute. Failing to pitch up mentally can lead to devestating effects physically.
Right now, Ireland feel like a team full of oomph, but not much behind it. An aging squad looking to get to the World Cup unscathed; this coming summer could be a shot in the arm or a deathknell to their chances of competing.
There is no doubt that Ireland’s current injury list, their worst of the Andy Farrell era, is debilitating. Andrew Porter, Paddy McCarthy, Ryan Baird, Caelan Doris, Jack Crowley (above) and Mack Hansen all ruled out, while James Lowe’s test career came to an abrupt halt.
It makes a team built on cohesion, harder to read or predict; so to try our best we must reflect on the trends of recent windows.
The Six Nations, by and large, has been a success if you want to use that shade of paint. 1st-2nd-2nd over the last three years is certainly not bad; although their last two losses to France by a combined 37 points is pretty grim.
Their southern hemisphere record since the World Cup has not been much better either. Three straight losses to the All Blacks, and one win from three to the Boks tells you all you need to know.
Tier 1.5 of the top, top nations
Having been a legitimate contender in 2023, it does feel like Ireland have stagnated at best, or simply regressed from the top of the mountain back towards the chasing pack.
So what is the aim for the Summer?
For my mind: caps, freshness and evolution.
But… that’s hard to see.
Assistant coach Paul O’Connell has already decreed that they are heading down under to win and not to hand out caps like sweets, but that attitude feels incredibly dangerous.
With so little time until they return in actual tournament mode, is there much danger in trying to test out all four corners of your depth chart? Sure you could argue there’s enough rugby IP already sidelined as is, but what more does Bryn Ward (above) have to do to get capped?
It is this gatekeeping effect that the Andy Farrell era has had that frustrates fans country-wide. At a time where even Wales and Scotland rotate about as often as Ireland; it just feels incredibly naive.
Sleepwalking into the next brick wall.
It is critical that Ireland have a full three game run of competitive fixtures this July, the type we have not seen in some time. The Six Nations of 2026 was stop start in nature, while last November was bookended with drab performances.
One would hope that experimentation will breed competition for places and thus, bring greater form to the matchday side; but we shall wait and see.
If my own prayers are answered, Ireland will head into the Autumn with the consensus first 23 looking something like this:
Hugo Keenan; 14. Robert Baloucoune, 13. Garry Ringrose, 12. Stuart McCloskey, 11. Mack Hansen; 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Jamison Gibson-Park; 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Dan Sheehan, 3. Tadhg Furlong; 4. Joe McCarthy, 5. James Ryan; 6. Tadhg Beirne, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Caelan Doris (capt).
Rónan Kelleher, 17. Tom O’Toole, 18. Tom Clarkson, 19. Edwin Edogbo, 20. Jack Conan, 21. Craig Casey, 22. Sam Prendergast, 23. Tommy O’Brien.
Is this group, plus about 10 “next man up” guys, good enough to feel more confident 12 months from now? Absolutely. But it’s about finding the correct path.
Time after time Andy Farrell has sauntered down the road most travelled, but if we learned anything from the Six Nations; it’s that the one less travelled, with more scope to change things up; is not quite as scary as we are told.
Just look at the emergence of Tom O’Toole and Robert Baloucoune.
As for this Saturday, it is all up in the air. I risk dissenting a large cohort of Aussie readers with this next bit but if I am honest; I would not trust the Wallabies to beat the stretch in the evenings in their current guise.
Joe Schmidt’s men feel like they are both more and less than the sum of their parts simultaneously.
Add in the fact that we could yet see Joe return to Irish rugby, via Leinster, it adds a slim layer of intrigue however unlikely that eventuality is.
Great insight mate! Its interesting times for Ireland, they keep defying the pundits who are predicting their slide. Should make for an awesome test against the Wallabies
Tadgh Furlong as a starter in the autumn ? From all the evidence I see, his scrummaging against the top teams in the world is a liability now. And his work outside the scrums has dropped away too. He will have to really raise his game again to even make the 23 in the autumn, imo. I hope I'm wrong, as he has been one of Ireland's great players.